Well seems you have the knowledge base to make your decision. There is no crystal ball but sure you will get an opinion or three. I have only been riding about 10 years, and have never had a flat I could not fix on the trail with basic stuff. But that's only happened twice. I have seen others lose a sidewall and I can tell you that ruins a day or a whole weekend, not to mention the impact of the buddies you are riding with. I do carry a spare OEM tire that is mismatched size to just get me rolling and back if needed. Tire choice is about terrain and riding choice and personally acceptable risk.